The IPO Tipping Point

Dominic Basulto writes today on Tech Central Station about Google's chances at becoming the Netscape of the 00's [via Corante]. Using Malcom Gladwell's Tipping Point epidemiology metaphors, Basulto writes:

Maybe there is a better explanation -- the "IPO contagion" has not yet incubated itself. The tipping point has not yet been reached. Sometimes it takes a while for a virus or epidemic to grow in strength. (In Gladwell's parlance, there must exist an array of connectors, mavens and salesmen before an idea or trend can have a tipping point.)

Google will be an IPO tipping point but for a much more limited epidemic. As Bill Gurley wrote awhile back, there are a number of nicely growing, profitable consumer Internet companies consolidating spaces and getting scale. I doubt any of them are of enough scale to start a more positive IPO market but many of them are able to keep one going on the heels of a Google offering. I expect to see a boomlet in consumer Internet IPOs in the 12 months A.G. (after Google).

I would be surprised if it led to a broader boom in technology IPOs, however. There are a few good sized, enterprise focused private companies which should see success in the IPO markets over the next year. But I think you're going to need to see the same underlying strength in enterprise spending as we've seen recently in consumer spending before there's going to be a more robust IPO market for the broader technology market.